Some Thoughts on the Coming Year

A new year, a new decade and new energy!   As ritual as ever with the new year come the predictions and just for fun I thought this year I might give my own thoughts around what to expect.

With this AND taking up Twitter (@cameronchurch) I'm really pushing the boat out here!  Here we go:

As I've read many other prediction posts the one thing that has struck me as slightly annoying is that with every (educated) guess comes a much longer validation spiel around it.   To help make this somewhat more digestable here is the shorten version of the brain chaos in my head.  Happy to elaborate on any, just let me know.

Also I'm always up for the debate so feel free to give me your comments!

So in no particular order (as my brain is less organised than I'd like it to be) here are 10 things I think you should look out for in 2010 for the Online Video Space:

The Player is the new Browser - interaction, content delivery and engagement will increasingly migrate to the playback window from the hosting page.

Web 3.0 = the Stream - stateless paged based objects will be replaced by temporal information flows that will exist whether you're looking or not.  Now it's really time to surf the web! All 10,000,000 gazillion channels of it.

Live Streaming will lead the charge this year for novel content bringing quickly behind it DVR capability

One platform to bind them all - Convergence around workflow, storage and delivery/aggregation to all consumption points from all production points will continue to drive forward.

Advertising will come home - Ad CPMs will be based on interaction instead of click thrus; more in line with traditional TV behaviour (except no TiVO to skip them!)

Monetision will come of age - Content Syndication, Branded Content, Infomercials, Pay Per View Subscriptions will all offer real alternative revenue streams

In Video Commerce will struggle for adoption - although novel this is more business lead then consumer lead so it will enter market nuturing mode with the front runners sacrificing themselves to educate and formalise the ideas

High Definition content will continue to struggle to emerge - all the afficiandos amongst us would love to see true 1080p 5 Mbps delivery of our favourite clips however the infrastructure and bandwidth will continue to be reactive and lag behind. 

The Player Upgrades to the Experience - a video consumption experience will now require interactivity tools to engage the user, design will build across all 3 screens

Online Video Gets Tenure - Don't have video on your web property?  Then you don't have a web property worth noting!

(please note that some of these are not original thoughts at all, in fact most probably aren't, however they are indeed my vote, hanging chad and all).


No matter where this industry goes, one thing is for sure - it will continue to grow and mature which is a good thing for all of us.    So from me to all of you and your family, friends and colleagues :

A very Happy New Year and all the best in 2010!

-- Cameron Church